Economic Forecasting and Policy - Read online and download for free

Economic Forecasting offers a thorough overview of macroeconomic forecasting, blending theoretical foundations with practical empirical methods. It covers a broad spectrum of topics, including business cycle analysis, time series techniques, macroeconomic modeling, medium- and long-term projections, fiscal and financial forecasting, and sector-specific forecasts.

Reviews

"This book succeeds in being both an introductory guide and an essential reference for experts tackling the major questions in this increasingly critical field. As the world recovers from one of the most significant economic shocks in a generation, books like this will be eagerly read by those seeking solutions to prevent future crises."
— Catherine Snowdon, Central Banking

"Good economic forecasters are pragmatists. They balance intuition, drawn from experience, with time series evidence and theory. Ignore theory, and you lose consistency and storytelling power. Rely too rigidly on theory, and you miss key developments that don’t fit the model. These skills aren’t taught in graduate school (though they should be)—but they are taught in this remarkable book. Read it before you start forecasting."
— Olivier J. Blanchard, Professor of Economics, MIT; former Chief Economist, IMF

"This book effortlessly reminded me of the complexities and challenges in the ‘dark art’ of forecasting—lessons I once had to learn the hard way. Its comprehensive, up-to-date approach offered insights that were either unavailable or unknown to me at the time. Clearly written, logically structured, and reliant on mathematics only where necessary, it also draws important lessons from the 2007 financial crisis and the Great Recession."
— William R. White, Chairman, OECD Economic and Development Review Committee; former Head, BIS Monetary and Economic Department

"Accessible to anyone with a general background in economics, yet nuanced and cutting-edge, this book equips forecasters with a full toolkit. It clearly explains technical concepts, provides numerous real-world examples, and demonstrates how economic analysis informs decision-making processes."
— Jean-Philippe Cotis, Head, France’s National Statistical Office; former Chief Economist, OECD

About the Authors

Nicolas Carnot is Deputy Director for Social and Employment Policies at the French Treasury. He has held various positions at the French Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund, with a strong focus on macroeconomic forecasting and policy advisory work.

Vincent Koen is a senior official at the OECD Economics Department and a long-time contributor to the OECD Economic Outlook. He has also served at the International Monetary Fund and the French Central Bank. Koen holds a PhD from MIT and has authored a textbook on capital markets as well as numerous articles on economic issues.

Bruno Tissot is Adviser to the General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), where he previously served as Secretary of the Markets Committee of Central Banks. Prior to joining the BIS, he headed the International Economic Synthesis Division at the French Ministry of Finance. Alongside Nicolas Carnot, he co-authored La Prévision Économique, which received the 2003 award for Best Economics Book from the French Academy of Moral and Political Sciences.